Turning My Steel Network-Wangjianhua: There's still room for growth in the steel market in October
發(fā)布時(shí)間:[2019-9-29 16:37:1] 瀏覽量:3041次
As of the 27th, in September, steel prices went out of a slight upward trend of shocks. The steel composite price index rose 46 times from the end of last month. In terms of variety, the spiral steel price index rose 130, the hot rolling price index fell 9, and the cold rolling price index rose 32.; 62 % iron ore price The dollar index rose 6.6, while the coke price index fell 93, the overall operating posture is basically in line with expectations. Looking ahead to the steel market in October, there is still room for recovery, but regions and varieties will diverge.
This year, the steel market is very divided, the price operation situation is confusing, leeks are cut one after another. On the eve of October, despite unprecedented unexpected production restrictions, steel prices are still depressed or even falling, showing that pessimistic expectations still have the upper hand. The pressure of the market comes from three aspects: the main reason is the high supply of steel; Secondary reasons are the impact of trade issues and pessimistic expectations; The marginal impact is that demand is expected to fall, which is like three mountains, pressing the price of steel this year is difficult to rise. However, the author believes that these three factors have been, are or will be quietly changed. These changes should be conducive to market confidence, and even guide the reasonable repair of steel prices.
First, high supply is gradually falling back to a fairly or even slightly lower level in the same period last year. Steel production has fallen slightly since hitting a recent high in May. Judging from the weekly output of the five major varieties tracked and investigated by the steel link, the thread output has dropped by about 300,000 tons from a high level, the wire production has dropped by about 150,000 tons from a high level, and the output of medium-thick plates has also dropped by about 100,000 tons. This year's hot-rolling weekly production, which has been telling the story of production, is also about 3.3 million tons, and there has been little increase. The total weekly output of the five major products fell from a high to 10,282,600 tons at the end of September, a reduction of nearly 600,000 tons from the higher level, only 137,100 tons from Gaochu in the same period last year. The weekly production of thread, wire, hot rolling, cold rolling and medium plate increased by 229,500 tons, by 86,100 tons, by 6.4, by 2.92 and by 85,300 tons respectively. The average daily iron and water output of 247 blast furnace enterprises surveyed by the Steel Union fell from a high level to 2.218 million tons, and the average daily output dropped by 160,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 58,800 tons. Short-process capacity utilization fell to 57.8 %, down 16.34 % year-on-year. The stock of Steel Union statistics was also only 1,067,000 tons of Gaochu, including 964,000 tons of thread Gaochu. An important reason for some people to be bearish before National Day is that thread production has increased, ignoring the impact of production restrictions mainly reflected in the reduction of market supply during and even after long vacations. According to rough estimates, the output of production restrictions before and after the festivals in Tangshan, Wu'an, Handan, Tianjin, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and other places is about 4 million tons, and the inventory of the National Day holidays in 2017 and 2018 has reached 1.4875 million tons and 1.3353 million tons, respectively. Accumulation should not exceed this figure this year, with inventories expected to turn negative in the second week after the savings, and stocks expected to fall by 2 million tons or more in October. Since Tangshan will continue to restrict production from October 1 to November 15, the decline in supply in October should be greatly exceeded, and the high probability of market available resources will decrease year-on-year(the impact of production restrictions at the end of September is mainly seen in October. Sales volume). It should be said that high supply, the market's biggest price pressure will be significantly reduced, steel prices should be a reasonable repair.
Secondly, the external situation is unfolding positively and an agreement is expected in the near future. The trade situation that began last year has not only affected China's manufacturing steel demand, but also severely suppressed the market's future expectations. Once positive progress is made in reaching an agreement, the market mentality will change positively, and steel prices will also bring some repairs.
Again, October demand is expected to remain stable or even slightly increased. This year's overall demand, especially for construction materials, has increased markedly. The average daily turnover of construction materials surveyed by the Steel Union in September increased by 10.3 % compared to the previous year, an increase of 13.2 %. Here is the impact of the increase in demand caused by the rush of some projects for the 70th anniversary of Daqing. However, there were also some site closures that delayed some of the demand until its release in October. Whether it is from the construction industry new order index or look at the construction business activity index, are in a positive expansion trend, and the state has increased the countercyclical adjustment efforts, requiring the issuance of special debt at the end of September, the end of October funds to the project. Demand for steel for infrastructure will increase both year-on-year and cyclically, with many worried about a fall in demand, but new construction and construction space for the property will keep demand steady in October. It is understood that some enterprises have seen a marked increase in orders for construction machinery and Diggers(which also confirms that construction steel is in good demand), while automobiles, household appliances and shipbuilding steel are expected to remain stable, with inventories of finished products from industrial enterprises of scale and above growing by only 2.2 % at the end of August. Once the library is filled, the virtual demand will increase.
Of course, the steel market is also under expected pressure in October. Winter is coming. Some short-selling funds are eyeing for a ride. Some industrial Capital also wants to meet the high ground. This may put pressure on the rebound. In any case, with crude steel production growing by about 9 per cent this year and crude steel apparent consumption growing by almost 10 per cent, the cost of steel is basically flat, while the stock of steel has increased by only 1,067,000 tons. However, the price of steel synthetics, threads, hot rolling, and medium-thickness plates on September 27 was respectively 629, 774, 620, and 664 yuan/ton lower than the same period of year. Even considering the return of profits, it can not be said that the price of steel is significantly lower. Last year, moreover, steel prices began to fall sharply and quickly from early November, but nearly four months after that. This year, steel prices have fallen from their highs in mid-April, with little decent rally, and prices are now much less expensive. Rationally speaking, there should be no room for adjustment even if the price of steel is adjusted in October.
In short, in the iron and steel market in October, the fundamentals are expected to be greatly eased, macro expectations are expected to gradually improve, steel prices are expected to usher in a resumption of rebound market, but also to guard against the short-term capital arbitrarily suppressed futures adjustment pressure.
