Next week, steel prices or first strong and then weak shock adjustment

Next week, it is forecast that next week, the probability of interest rate cuts will be high, the bottom of the price spiral will rise again, and it will boost the spot market mentality. The prices set by manufacturers tend to be more stable and wait and see. However, demand in the market is insufficient to follow up, and the market tends to hang upside down and ship goods. Subsequently, the steel mills'support weakens and the prices are lowered, the narrow range of inventory in the market continues to decline, but it is still on the high side compared to the same period last year. With the arrival of the Meiyu season in the south, it is difficult for terminal demand in the lower reaches to improve, and the market is active in shipping goods. In view of manufacturers'willingness to push prices, considering that the current supply pressure is still there, demand side overall performance is not good, is expected next week steel prices or first strong and then weak shock adjustment. Spot market, CONSTRUCTION STEEL: Weak Operation; the current trend of inventory decline has not changed, but the total inventory is higher than the same period last year. Although the two sessions ended, infrastructure and real estate projects were gradually started and resumed, but due to seasonal factors, the North is about to enter the high temperature weather, the south is entering the rainy season, the speed of destocking will probably slow down, and after the end of the production restriction, the production of billet-blending enterprises will resume, the demand for billet will increase, it is estimated that the price will hardly fall, and the support to the market price will continue, building materials prices are expected to rise or fall next week, weak shocks. Hot rolled coil: the shock level goes down; the news surface hype dissipates; as the steel production increases, the market begins to return to the supply and demand fundamentals, the south is affected by rainfall, flooding has caused 11 provinces to be affected, the terminal purchase plan is affected by it, and the downstream construction sites are hurried, the rebound in steel prices is limited, terminal demand due to high turnover is not good, the second half of the week there is a hidden drop in shipping, but the overall downward space is limited, is expected to hot-rolled market before and after the high weak shock. HEAVY PLATE: Before High and after low; early week affected by the epidemic situation ore futures led the period steel to strengthen, offset some negative emotions, merchants multi-dimensional steady wait-and-see, southern market resources generally tight to merchants quote has support, market inventory decline narrowed, as the south enters the Meiyu season at this stage, downstream demand may further slow down. The contradiction between supply and demand will continue to put pressure on high-priced resources. However, taking into account cost support, next week, the market is expected to be high or weak before and after the adjustment. Strip steel: First Up, then weak; the South has already entered the Meiyu season, affected by this demand continued to shrink, but given that the north has not yet reached a high level of inventories in the near future, the supply and demand weak balance situation still exists, with the production and inventory growth year-on-year, when terminal demand can not support high prices, external uncertain factors and weather and other factors restrict the market. The market is faced with strong supply and weak demand. With the arrival of the high temperature rainy season, demand will gradually weaken, the speed of lowering the reservoir will slow down, and with favorable gradual digestion, lack of sustained upward momentum, steel prices are expected to rise or fall next week. PROFILE: the shock is on the weak side; the rainy season in the south is coming together and the demand for outdoor construction is seriously hindered. In addition, the steel plant is operating well and the output of crude steel has maintained steady growth. The situation of supply exceeding demand continues to deteriorate and the terminal price-for-value sentiment is strong, the raw material end has risen sharply, the early stage of the material has increased, but the strong price intention, a limited degree of decline, is expected to maintain the current profile prices before and after the adjustment. Pipe Material: Narrow Range Shock; this week pipe market turnover in general, straight pipe market stable adjustment 10-30, demand flat, seamless pipe mainstream stable, Meiyu off-season, curb demand, manufacturers follow the market; although the raw material end strong support the market, but the high temperature and rainy, spot resources are in short supply, no hoarders active, subjective look, how fast in and out, is expected next week or pipe market price adjustment shocks. Raw material market, iron ore: First Up, then down; at the beginning of the week, the general index of prices rose sharply, and businesses looked forward to the rise of prices with a strong mentality. Generally, they were unable to make goods available. The prices of many local steel enterprises rose, but it was still difficult to meet the expectations of traders. Now, the prices of steel trade are in a game, and the prices at the factory keep rising, although the foreign mine has receded, but the business is still optimistic, and steel demand is not reduced, high prices difficult to be traded, mineral processing and traders are still bullish, buyers inquiry slightly reduced, market prices remain firm, iron ore market stability is expected to adjust next week. SCRAP STEEL: stable in a rise; this week the spot trend concussion is weak, although the social inventory of screw thread continues to decrease, but affected by rain weather, the release of terminal demand slows down, the high price of steel is under pressure, scrap steel due to rain weather, processing and transportation also slowed down, supply is relatively tight, leading large plant demand to maintain a high level, coupled with competition in some areas, the scrap price support is relatively strong, scrap prices are expected to be stable next week to emphasize the adjustment. Coke: Up; this week the fourth round of raising coke 50-100 has been implemented, the transaction is fair, Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei and other regions Coke enterprises opened the fifth round of raising 50, some steel mills accepted the increase, the current Shanxi Fenyang region environmental protection limit production, the production of coal in Shandong and the reduction of production capacity in Xuzhou are continuing. Other coke enterprises are active in production and the overall inventory is not large. The fifth round of increase in coke production is expected to be implemented next week. Pig Iron: Narrow Range Shock; current finished products shock adjustment, with iron prices continue to go up, steel mills tend to be cautious about purchasing steel, ore high level shock, coke fifth round increase or will be implemented one after another, pig iron costs remain high, in addition to the subway plant inventory is not large or to maintain negative inventory, pig iron prices are easy to rise hard to fall, is expected next week pig iron market stable upward operation.